Despite years of promises and billions in investment, full autonomy remains a distant goal.
Two decades ago, the U.S. military sparked a race toward autonomous vehicles with its landmark DARPA Grand Challenge, sending experimental robot cars across the Mojave Desert. By 2015, optimism around self-driving cars had reached a fever pitch. Tech giants and automakers alike predicted a not-so-distant future in which roads would be filled with vehicles that needed no human driver.
Self Driving Car Fast forward to 2025, and that vision is still largely unfulfilled
Some companies have walked away from their ambitions entirely, citing high costs and technical complexity. Regulatory pressure has increased following high-profile crashes involving semi-autonomous systems, adding further roadblocks. For companies still in the race, progress continues—but with extreme caution, as the consequences of even one failure can be devastating.
Where the Leaders Stand Today
One of the most visible players, Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc., has made the most tangible progress so far. The company introduced its fully driverless taxi service to a fourth major U.S. city this March through a partnership with Uber. Waymo’s robotaxis are already active in Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, and its Austin launch marks a significant step forward. Plans to expand the service to Atlanta this summer are already in motion. Waymo is also working to integrate its technology into Toyota vehicles, which could bring advanced autonomy features to mainstream consumers.
Meanwhile, Tesla took a cautious step into autonomous ride-hailing this June by deploying a limited fleet of supervised “robotaxi” Model Y vehicles in Austin. This initiative is far from the ambitious prediction made by CEO Elon Musk in 2019, when he declared that Tesla would have one million robotaxis on the road within a year. Despite this, Musk’s vision continues: he aims to launch a dedicated two-seater “Cybercab” with no steering wheel by 2026.
However, Tesla’s path to full autonomy remains uncertain. The company’s driver-assist suite, marketed as Full Self-Driving (FSD), is under investigation by federal regulators following multiple crashes, one of which resulted in a fatality. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is currently examining whether Tesla’s robotaxis violated traffic laws during their launch day in Austin.
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Global Expansion and China’s Push on Self Driving
China has become a hotbed of autonomous vehicle development, with numerous startups leading the way. WeRide Inc., which recently secured another $100 million from its U.S. partner Uber, is planning international expansion to Dubai and Europe. Baidu Inc., another major Chinese player, is preparing to launch its Apollo Go ride-hailing service in European markets. Baidu currently operates one of the largest robotaxi fleets in China, covering cities like Beijing and Guangzhou.
Big Setbacks in the Industry
For every advancement in autonomy, there seems to be a significant setback.
In October 2022, Ford Motor Co. and Volkswagen AG shut down their joint self-driving venture Argo AI, which at its peak employed over 2,000 people. Ford wrote down its $2.7 billion investment and pivoted toward enhanced driver-assist systems. VW’s CEO later scrapped Audi’s plans for a self-driving car, though the automaker still collaborates with suppliers like Bosch, Mobileye, and Horizon Robotics.
Apple Inc. also made headlines in February 2024 when it scrapped its long-rumored autonomous car project after investing billions in a Level 4/5 capable vehicle.
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General Motors Co. closed its robotaxi division Cruise after one of its vehicles struck a pedestrian in San Francisco in October 2023. The company is now focusing on selling autonomous features directly to consumers and enhancing its Super Cruise system. GM also hired Sterling Anderson, the former head of Tesla’s Autopilot division, in May.
In another reversal, Aurora Innovation Inc. placed human drivers back behind the wheel of its self-driving trucks in Texas. The decision came less than three weeks after launching a commercial service and was reportedly requested by truck partner Paccar Inc.
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The Complexity of Full Autonomy
Achieving full, Level 5 autonomy remains the industry’s ultimate goal—but it’s an extraordinarily complex one. A fully autonomous vehicle must be capable of navigating every possible situation, on any road, in all weather conditions, day or night. This demands extensive sensor arrays and high-performance computing systems that are both difficult and costly to develop.
What’s more, machines must be prepared to make ethical split-second decisions in extreme scenarios—decisions that are hard even for humans. For example, should a self-driving car swerve to avoid a child, knowing it could hit an elderly couple instead? These kinds of moral dilemmas continue to challenge developers and ethicists alike.
Despite the promise of safer roads, regulators and the public have little tolerance for mistakes made by autonomous systems, especially given that safety has been one of the primary arguments in favor of vehicle autonomy.
The Rise of Partial Autonomy
As full autonomy remains elusive, automakers are focusing on Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS) that support human drivers. These features include automatic emergency braking, lane-keeping, adaptive cruise control, and automated parking.
Many vehicles already include these technologies. Tesla’s Autopilot, for example, is classified as Level 2 autonomy, requiring constant driver supervision. Mercedes-Benz has taken the lead in Level 3 systems with its Drive Pilot, available via subscription and certified for limited freeways in parts of the U.S. and Germany.
Chinese automaker BYD Co. is also pushing ADAS forward, offering systems branded “God’s Eye” as standard in cars starting at just $12,300. The company also plans to integrate AI-powered software from DeepSeek.
ADAS Still Not Foolproof
While ADAS features offer real safety benefits, they’re not without issues. Fatal crashes involving ADAS—particularly those involving Tesla—have drawn intense scrutiny. NHTSA has opened dozens of investigations into Tesla crashes since 2016. In one case, the agency required Tesla to issue its largest recall ever—over 2 million vehicles—after finding the company didn’t do enough to prevent misuse of its Autopilot system.
Moreover, studies show that drivers may abuse or become over-reliant on these systems, potentially undermining their effectiveness. In some cases, engineers testing these features have even fallen asleep at the wheel due to the monotony of supervising an automated system in traffic.
Narrator Word : The Road Ahead
The autonomous driving industry has come a long way, but there is still a long road ahead. While robotaxis are slowly becoming more common in controlled environments, true full autonomy remains a work in progress.
Until developers can solve the ethical, technical, and regulatory challenges of self-driving technology, human drivers will still be very much in the driver’s seat.